Monthly commentary September 2025

Macro and Asset Allocation

USA

US data continues to point to economic strength. The GDP growth estimate for the second quarter of 2025 was raised by 0.5 percentage points to an annualised growth rate of 3.8%. The services and manufacturing PMIs measured by S&P fell to 53.9 and 52, respectively, in line with expectations and in expansion territory. Jobless claims fell by 14k to 218k, the lowest level since July and well below expectations of 233k. Core PCE inflation stood at 2.9% year-on-year in August, in line with expectations. Personal income (+0.4%) and consumption (+0.6%) grew slightly more than expected. The positive data was reflected in the US GDP growth estimates for the current quarter provided by the Atlanta Fed (GDPNow), which rose to a solid 3.9%.

EUROZONE and SWITZERLAND

In Europe, flash estimates of the composite PMI rose to 51.2 for September, the highest level in 16 months. The composite figure was driven by 0.9 point growth in services (51.4), which offset a 1.4 point decline in manufacturing (49.5). At regional level, the German services sector surprised on the upside, rising from 49.3 to 52.5. Consumer confidence and economic confidence data showed a slight improvement compared to the previous month. In Switzerland, the SNB, as expected, left its key interest rates unchanged at 0%, avoiding bringing them back into negative territory.

ASIA

In China, industrial profits grew by 20.4% year-on-year, but manufacturing and services PMIs are struggling to grow and remain in a zone of economic stagnation. Deflation for producers (-2.9% YoY) and consumers (-0.4% YoY) was greater than expected, and both imports and exports were weaker than expected. The money supply (M1) in the country grew as expected by 6% compared to the previous year, providing support for the economy.

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Monthly commentary August 2025

Macro and Asset Allocation

USA

New jobs created in the US in August stood at 22k, well below expectations of 75k. Jobless claims fell by 5k to 229k, as expected. However, the pace of hiring slowed significantly in the last quarter. The unemployment rate also rose to 4.3%. The ISM Manufacturing Index grew less than expected to 48.7, but the new orders sub-index rose to 51.4, exceeding expectations. The ISM Services Index (52 vs. 51) and its new orders sub-index (56 vs. 51.1) also beat expectations. Core inflation (PCE) was in line with analysts' expectations at +2.9% year-on-year, but up from the previous month and at its highest level since February 2025. Although the figure is above the 2% target, the Fed is expected to cut rates at its next meeting with the aim of preventing further weakness in the labour market. US economic growth for the second quarter was revised upwards to 3.3% from the initial estimate of 3%, signalling a resilient economy despite tariffs. Consumer spending grew by 0.5%, as expected, while durable goods orders fell much less than expected: -2.8% vs -4%. Consumer confidence deteriorated in August, but less than expected, mainly due to concerns about inflation and employment.

EUROZONE and SWITZERLAND

In the Eurozone, the HCOB Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.7, above expectations, while the Services PMI fell slightly to 50.5. Core CPI yoy rose by 2.3% in August, slightly above expectations. At the aggregate level, consumer confidence did not improve in August and remains flat and negative, while confidence in the economy deteriorated slightly. Inflation in Italy and France remains below the ECB's target, while German inflation rose more than expected to 2.2% year-on-year. In the UK, annual inflation rose to its highest level in 18 months, increasing the likelihood that the BoE will hold off at its next meeting. Consumer prices were 3.8% higher in July than in the same month last year, up from 3.6% in June.

ASIA

In the Eurozone, the HCOB Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.7, above expectations, while the PMI Services fell slightly to 50.5. Core CPI yoy rose by 2.3% in August, slightly above expectations. At the aggregate level, consumer confidence did not improve in August and remains flat and negative, while confidence in the economy deteriorated slightly. Inflation in Italy and France remains below the ECB's target, while German inflation rose more than expected to 2.2% year-on-year. In the UK, annual inflation rose to its highest level in 18 months, increasing the likelihood that the BoE will hold off on raising rates at its next meeting. Consumer prices were 3.8% higher in July than in the same month last year, up from 3.6% in June.

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Monthly commentary July 2025

Macro and Asset Allocation

USA

In the US, ADP employment change was published at 104K, higher than expected (76K) and higher than the previous figure (-33K). GDP QoQ was positive at 3% (expected 2.6%, previous -0.5%). The Fed kept rates unchanged, citing trade uncertainties and labor market resilience as key factors. Personal income was reported at 0.3% (expected 0.2%, previous -0.4%), while personal spending was also at 0.3% (expected 0.4%). Initial jobless claims at 218K were better than expected (224K). The key figure for the week was NFP at 73K, significantly below expectations (104K) and with a downward revision of past data. The unemployment rate remains in line with expectations at 4.2%. The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI was published at 49.8, slightly above expectations (49.7), while the ISM manufacturing index disappointed at 48 (previous 49.5).

EUROZONE and SWITZERLAND

In the EU, the ECB kept rates unchanged at 2% due to uncertainties surrounding trade agreements. The manufacturing PMI was published at 49.8, in line with expectations and above the previous figure (49.5), while the services PMI was 51.2 (expected at 50.6, previous at 50.5). The composite PMI was published at 51, also above expectations (50.7, previous 50.6). GDP YoY was published at 1.4% (expectations 1.2%, previous 1.5%). The unemployment rate improved marginally to 6.2%, below expectations and below the previous figure (6.3%). The manufacturing PMI remained in line with expectations and the previous figure at 49.8. The CPI MoM was published at 0%, higher than expected (-0.1%).

ASIA

In China, the manufacturing PMI was published at 49.3, below expectations. S&P Global's China Manufacturing PMI was also below expectations at 49.5. GDP YoY was published at 5.2%, slightly above expectations (5.1%). Retail sales data was below expectations at 4.8%, while YoY industrial production data was above expectations at 6.8% (expected at 5.6%).

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Monthly commentary June 2025

Macro and Asset Allocation

USA

In the US, the manufacturing PMI was published at 52.9 and the ISM manufacturing index at 49, both above expectations. The ISM services index was also published at 50.8, above expectations and above the previous figure (50.5 and 49.9 respectively). The unemployment rate was published below expectations at 4.1% (expected 4.3%) and jobless claims were also below expectations at 233k (expected 241K, previous 236K). NFP data was published above expectations at 144K (estimate 106K, previous 139K). Durable goods orders were published at 16.4% (in line with expectations and previous figures) and factory orders at 8.2% (in line with expectations and higher than the previous figure of -3.7%).

EUROZONE and SWITZERLAND

In the EU, the manufacturing PMI was published at 49.5, slightly above expectations (49.4). The CPI Mom was published at 0.3% and the CPI YoY at 2.3%, both in line with expectations. Unemployment figures were published slightly above expectations at 6.3% (expected 6.2%). German consumer confidence fell slightly for the first time in four months, while the IFO and PMI indices for June slightly exceeded expectations.

ASIA

In China, the manufacturing PMI was published at 49.7 and the non-manufacturing PMI at 50.5, both slightly above expectations (49.6 and 50.3, respectively). May retail sales grew well above expectations (6.4% y/y from 5.1% and vs. 4.9% expected), but were largely supported by government incentives for purchases of household appliances and electronic devices.

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Monthly commentary May 2025

Macro and Asset Allocation

USA

US durable goods orders posted -6.3% MoM, the worst figure since October. The structurally volatile aviation sector contributed -5% to the overall decline. However, the decline showed weakness in manufacturing activity. Consumer confidence surprised on the upside at 98 (consensus at 87.1). Second revision of Q1 GDP shows a marginal improvement to -0.2% QoQ (from -0.3% previously). Investment provides partial support, driven by precautionary inventory build-up ahead of tariffs. Domestic demand remains weak, with consumption continuing to disappoint. Unemployment claims rise to 240,000. Core PCE inflation: MoM at 0.1%, YoY at 2.5%, Personal Income rises to +0.7% MoM and Personal Spending slows to +0.2% (from +0.7% previously). University of Michigan sentiment improved to 52.2 from 50.8, the lowest level since 2009. Worryingly, the published data of the MNI Chicago PMI fell to 40.5.

EUROZONE and SWITZERLAND

In Europe, the CPI MoM at 0.6% and CPI YoY at 2.2% were published, both in line with expectations, as was also the CPI Core YoY at 2.7%. Published were the Manufacturing PMI, improving slightly to 49.4, and the Services PMI, declining to 48.9. Published was the Consumer Confidence figure (source: European Commission), improving slightly to -15.2. At the moment, the European picture appears stable, with inflation still expected to fall, which could lead to further cuts by the ECB. Watch out for the figure for the manufacturing sector: this outperformance compared to the services sector, considering the current uncertainty surrounding duties, is caused by the fact that many US companies are anticipating orders before duties are introduced.

ASIA

China's manufacturing PMI improved to 49.5 from the previous reading of 49. The temporary truce on tariffs and stimulus from the People's Bank of China provided support, but the situation remains fragile and closely dependent on the evolution of trade tensions. Data on retail sales at 5.1%, below expectations, and industrial production at 6.1%, above expectations. However, both data showed some slowdown, impacted mainly by trade tensions.

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Monthly commentary April 2025

Macro and Asset Allocation

USA

In the US, the ISM Services index was released at 51.6, higher than expected and in contrast to the manufacturing sector (below 50). Of particular note was the paid prices component of the ISM Services, which rose to 65.1 (highest since 2023), fuelling concerns about inflationary pressures. The trade deficit remained high due to a surge in imports (+5.0%), however, with many companies anticipating purchases before the new tariffs took effect. Initial claims for unemployment benefits fell to 228,000, highlighting a still robust labour market. Q1 GDP declined slightly to -0.3% qoq, but with robust consumption, strong imports depressing growth and a rising Core PCE (inflation). After a series of markedly negative regional Fed district surveys, ISM Manufacturing appears down, but less than expected at 48.7 (previous month 49.0), with new orders at 47.2, also down.

EUROZONE and SWITZERLAND

In the Eurozone, the Services PMI was published, falling to 50.1 (from 51.0 in March), marking the lowest reading since November 2024. The Composite PMI fell to 50.4 (from 50.9), indicating slowing economic growth. The New Orders figure at 49.1 showed a contraction (eleventh consecutive month). PPI published, down -1.4% MoM and up 2.5% YoY. Q1 GDP growth in Europe exceeded expectations with +0.4% YoY, partly positively influenced by the strong Irish figure, which is volatile and often revised. HCOB's Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.0 versus expectations at 48.7. Watch out, however, for April's CPI Core rising at +2.7% YoY (expectations at +2.5%)

ASIA

In China published the services PMI (Caixin) down to 50.7 (from 51.9 in March), registering the lowest value since September 2024 and below expectations (51.8). The composite PMI dropped to 51.1 (from 51.8). The weakening Chinese macro picture, combined with expectations of export contraction due to tariffs, raises concerns about China's ability to meet its growth targets.

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Global Balanced among the bests in the balanced fund category

CFS Rating, a leading rating agency, conducted an independent analysis of Popso (Suisse) – Global Balanced, awarding it the highest rating – 5 stars – and certifying it internationally as one of the best in the balanced fund category.

This is CFS Rating's overall assessment:

“Popso (Suisse) Global Balanced is a suitable solution for those who want a balanced portfolio, with a bond component focused on euro-denominated securities that helps reduce overall risk. Its track record shows some of the best results in its category, thanks in part to low volatility, which allows the fund to stand out for its above-average risk/return ratio.”

The fund, managed by BPS (SUISSE), is available in Euro, Swiss Franc, and US Dollar classes. 

Click on the following link for the complete analysis by CFS Rating (in Italian): 2025.10_Analisi CFS Rating Popso (Suisse) - Global Balanced_EN

Discover the new range now

In a constantly evolving financial world, the key to success is flexibility, in order to best meet the needs of each investor: this is why we have been constantly renewing ourselves for over 25 years. 

Discover the new range of Popso (Suisse) Investment Fund SICAV investment funds:
• Fixed Income –  For those seeking stability, with investments mainly in bonds
• Strategics – For those who want a dynamic balance of bonds, shares and international currencies
• Equities – For those who focus on growth by investing mainly in shares.

The advantages: 
• Accessibility: access to domestic and international markets in CHF, EUR and USD, even with small amounts 
• Diversification: widely diversified portfolios to reduce risk
• Professionalism: professional and award-winning portfolio management
• Liquidity: redeem your money at any time
• Transparency: we answer all your questions.

Don't miss this opportunity, discover the new range of funds today and give your investments a boost!

Premio Alto Rendimento and CFS Rating

Il Sole 24Ore, Italy’s foremost financial newspaper, awarded BPS (SUISSE) the 2024 Premio Alto Rendimento as runner-up in the “small” category of investment fund managers operating in Italy.
The ranking, based on models developed by the independent firm CFS Rating, assesses the performance of the entire product range in both the current and previous years. 

Based on its methodology, CFS Rating also published the annual guide “I 300 Migliori Fondi”, highlighting the top funds in Italy with the best risk-return profiles out of more than 12,000 available.
Popso (Suisse) Investment Fund SICAV is featured in the 2025 edition with three funds managed by BPS (SUISSE), two in CHF and one in EUR.

More details in the attached file.

Notice to shareholders

In the attached file you will find the Popso (Suisse) Investment Fund SICAV notice containing the last changes.

Enclosure: Information from Popso (Suisse) Investment Fund SICAV

CFS Rating 2024

Every year CFS Rating selects the best 300 investment funds on the Italian market among more than 12'000 products.

We are pleased to inform that the funds Swiss Conservative and Swiss Equity, both managed by BPS (SUISSE), have joined the BEST 300 in the Balanced – Bond Orientation and Equity Europe – Switzerland categories.

More details in the attached file.

Notice to shareholders

In the attached file you will find the Popso (Suisse) Investment Fund SICAV notice containing the last changes.

Enclosure: Information from Popso (Suisse) Investment Fund SICAV