Monthly commentary February 2026

Macro and Asset Allocation

USA

Inflation in the United States for February was in line with expectations: the headline figure stood at +2.4% year-on-year (YoY); the core figure at +2.5% YoY. The PCE Price Index for January, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, stood at 2.8% YoY, down from 2.9% the previous month. It should be noted, however, that the markets have largely ignored these figures because they do not include the effects of the oil price shock that has occurred over the last two weeks, which will be reflected in upcoming readings. The GDP estimate for the final quarter of 2025 has been revised downwards, from 1.4% to 0.7%, mainly due to lower personal consumption than previously estimated. The ISM Services and Manufacturing PMIs beat expectations, productivity rose more than expected and average wages are on the rise. However, the economy lost 92,000 jobs in February and the unemployment rate, whilst remaining historically low, rose to 4.4% from 4.3%.

EUROZONE and SWITZERLAND

In Europe, aggregate industrial production in January fell short of expectations, dropping by 1.2% compared with the same period last year, whilst analysts had expected a rise of 1.3%. German industrial orders (+3.7% YoY vs expectations of +13.2%) and actual production in January (-1.2% vs -0.8%) fell short of expectations. Meanwhile, confidence in the Eurozone economy (as measured by Sentix) fell more than expected, with investors returning to negative expectations in March. The European unemployment rate fell to a record low of 6.1%, with GDP growing by 1.2% year-on-year. On the inflation front, however, mixed signals are emerging: consumer inflation came in lower than expected (1.9% year-on-year vs. 1.7% forecast), whilst producer inflation surprised on the upside, falling more than expected to 2.1%.

ASIA

In China, February’s exports came as a surprise, growing at a rate of almost +40% compared to last year. There was also a positive surprise from February’s industrial production, which grew by 6.3% year-on-year (vs. expectations of +5.3%), and from retail sales: +2.8% vs. +2.5% expected. Official PMIs (more focused on the domestic economy), however, were disappointing, all falling below the 50-point threshold, whilst private PMIs (focused on exporting companies) were positive, with figures well above the expansion threshold: Manufacturing 52.1, Services 56.7 and Composite 55.4.

Click here to read the full comment >> 

Monthly commentary January 2026

Macro and Asset Allocation

USA

The economic situation in the United States continues to be described in divergent terms by positive "hard" data (actual results) and "soft" data (surveys) with negative surprises. While durable goods orders grew by 5.3% month-on-month in November, beating growth expectations of 4%, January manufacturing and services PMIs were lower than estimated at 51.9 and 52.5 respectively. Consumer confidence, as measured by the Conference Board survey, was well below estimates and fell to its lowest level since 2014. Despite this, consumers continue to increase their spending, as evidenced by the +7.1% year-on-year increase in the Redbook Index, which measures retail sales growth and anticipates aggregate retail sales. Producer inflation surprised on the upside, rising 0.5% month-on-month against expectations of 0.2%.

EUROZONE and SWITZERLAND

In Europe, at the aggregate level, the manufacturing PMI grew more than expected to 49.4 points, returning close to the expansion threshold, but the services PMI fell unexpectedly to 51.9 points from 52.4. Fourth-quarter GDP growth was in line with expectations at 1.3%. Core consumer inflation fell unexpectedly to 2.2% year-on-year. December retail sales disappointed expectations, growing only 1.3% against estimates of 1.7%, but the unemployment rate fell unexpectedly to 6.3% from 6.5%. In Germany, despite industrial orders for December growing much more than expected (13% vs 1.2% year-on-year), industrial output fell more than expected: -0.6% year-on-year.

ASIA

In China, official PMIs, both manufacturing and non-manufacturing, were lower than expected, at 49.3 and 49.4 respectively, while private PMIs (RatingDog) expanded to 50.3 and 52.3 respectively. The difficult situation in the real estate sector continues, with new home prices falling by 0.4% month-on-month. Growth in retail sales and investment in capital goods slowed more than expected to 0.9% year-on-year and -3.8% for the year, respectively.

Click here to read the full comment >> 

Monthly commentary December 2025

Macro and Asset Allocation

USA

Third consecutive cut by the Fed: the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to reduce benchmark rates by 25 basis points (bps) with three dissenting votes. One member advocated a 50 bps reduction, while two voted to keep rates unchanged. The Services PMI, the sector with the greatest weight in the US economy, came in at 54.4, up and higher than expected thanks to the most important sub-components performing better than expected; the Manufacturing PMI, on the other hand, was lower than expected at 47.9 points and returned to a clear contraction in the sector. The new orders and employment components improved slightly but remained low at 47.7 and 44.9 respectively. US private sector payrolls (ADP) rebounded in December with +41k units, unemployment benefit claims rose less than expected and the unemployment rate fell more than expected (4.5%): from 4.6% to 4.4%. The data confirmed a fragile picture but did not change expectations for the Fed (two cuts fully priced in for 2026).

EUROZONE and SWITZERLAND

In Europe, the ECB left rates unchanged, reiterating that future decisions will depend on macro data to be released in the coming months. Consumer inflation fell unexpectedly to 2.3% year-on-year, while headline inflation is falling as expected. The final composite PMI reading is slightly worse than the previous figure (51.5 from 51.9) but indicates that the economy is still expanding, thanks mainly to the services component (52.4).

ASIA

China's policy priorities are emerging: the Politburo has indicated domestic demand as the top priority for 2026, reducing dependence on exports. Monetary and fiscal policies will remain "moderately accommodative" and "proactive", although policy statements suggest that stimulus will not exceed this year's levels. Consumer prices rose 0.8% year-on-year, as expected, while producer prices fell less than expected to -1.9% year-on-year. The services and composite PMIs were 52 and 51.3 points, respectively.

Click here to read the full comment >> 

Monthly commentary November 2025

Macro and Asset Allocation

USA

In the US, core producer inflation rose less than expected in September, at 0.1% month-on-month. Consumer confidence, as measured by the Conference Board, fell more than expected to 88.7 points, returning to historically low levels. However, low confidence did not have a negative impact on retail sales, which grew by 0.2% month-on-month in September, and Black Friday sales were up year-on-year according to Mastercard's analysis. The US economy created 119,000 new non-farm jobs in September, exceeding expectations. Despite this, however, the unemployment rate rose unexpectedly to 4.4% from 4.3%, mainly due to the contraction in jobs recorded in August. The preliminary S&P services PMI, which rose above expectations, stood at 55 points and is clearly in the economic expansion zone. The manufacturing PMI is also in expansion territory at 51.9 points, but slightly down (-0.1) compared to the previous month. This results in a composite PMI of 54.8 points, which is up and continues to indicate clear economic expansion driven by the services sector. Consumer sentiment as measured by the University of Michigan improved slightly but remains at historically low levels.

EUROZONE and SWITZERLAND

In the Eurozone, consumer confidence remains unchanged but economic confidence improves, reaching its highest level since April 2023, despite Germany recording a deterioration in the IFO Business Climate and Business Expectation Index. Harmonised year-on-year inflation data for the main European economies show prices stabilising in France (0.8% YoY vs 1% expected) and Italy (1.1% from 1.3% vs 1.3% expected), a slower-than-expected slowdown in Spain (3.1% from 3.2% vs. 3% expected) and an acceleration in Germany (2.6% from 2.3% vs. 2.4% expected). Surprisingly, the KOF Leading Indicator in Switzerland improved to 101.7 points, exceeding expectations of 101, but GDP contracted more than expected (-0.5% QoQ vs. -0.4% expected) in the quarter and grew less than expected year-on-year: 0.5% vs. 0.6%. At the aggregate level, inflation was confirmed at 2.1%, but consumer confidence did not improve as expected and remained depressed at -14.2 points. In Germany, PMIs fell more than expected: the manufacturing PMI fell to 48.4 (from 49.6) and the services PMI to 52.7 (from 54.6). In the UK, inflation rose unexpectedly, with the overall index at 3.6% year-on-year, while core inflation stood at 3.4%.

ASIA

Chinese industrial profits fell by 5.5% year-on-year, and manufacturing activity contracted in November according to both the official PMI (49.2) and the private RatingDog PMI (49.9).

Click here to read the full comment >> 

Monthly commentary October 2025

Macro and Asset Allocation

USA

The Fed's FOMC did not disappoint expectations of a rate cut, bringing the Fed Fund rate to a range of 3.75-4%. In addition to this measure, Powell announced the end of the Fed's balance sheet reduction. During October, most macroeconomic data were not published due to the showdown. Among the data published, we note the economic sentiment in the US for the two main economic sectors (manufacturing and services), measured by the ISM, which sent mixed signals. The PMI for the services sector rose more than expected to 54.2 points, while the manufacturing PMI fell unexpectedly to 48.7 points, below the expansion threshold. However, the more cyclical components of both indices (new orders and employment) are growing. US companies announced the highest number of layoffs for the month of October in 20 years, but new private sector jobs counted by ADP rose more than expected to 42,000.

EUROZONE and SWITZERLAND

In the Eurozone, the ECB left rates unchanged, as expected, and Lagarde said she was satisfied with the achievement of inflation targets, despite inflation in Germany rising to 2.3% year-on-year against expectations of 2.2%. The European unemployment rate remains stable at 6.3%, while confidence in the economy has improved slightly. Retail sales grew more than expected at 1% year-on-year, while inflation fell to 2.1%, as expected. However, core inflation remained unchanged at 2.4% year-on-year, above estimates.

ASIA

The latest set of official indicators showed that the Chinese economy lost momentum at the start of the fourth quarter. Fixed asset investment fell by 1.7% in the first 10 months of the year, a record decline. Industrial production rose 4.9% in October, less than expected compared to the previous year, while retail sales rose 2.9%, the fifth consecutive month of slower growth. Other data showed that the Chinese property market, now in its fourth year of crisis, remains under pressure. In China, the (government) manufacturing PMI fell to 49 points, below the expansion threshold, despite industrial profits growing by 21.6% year-on-year. The private manufacturing PMI (RatingDog) remains in expansion territory at 50.6, but is falling and slightly below expectations.

Click here to read the full comment >> 

Monthly commentary September 2025

Macro and Asset Allocation

USA

US data continues to point to economic strength. The GDP growth estimate for the second quarter of 2025 was raised by 0.5 percentage points to an annualised growth rate of 3.8%. The services and manufacturing PMIs measured by S&P fell to 53.9 and 52, respectively, in line with expectations and in expansion territory. Jobless claims fell by 14k to 218k, the lowest level since July and well below expectations of 233k. Core PCE inflation stood at 2.9% year-on-year in August, in line with expectations. Personal income (+0.4%) and consumption (+0.6%) grew slightly more than expected. The positive data was reflected in the US GDP growth estimates for the current quarter provided by the Atlanta Fed (GDPNow), which rose to a solid 3.9%.

EUROZONE and SWITZERLAND

In Europe, flash estimates of the composite PMI rose to 51.2 for September, the highest level in 16 months. The composite figure was driven by 0.9 point growth in services (51.4), which offset a 1.4 point decline in manufacturing (49.5). At regional level, the German services sector surprised on the upside, rising from 49.3 to 52.5. Consumer confidence and economic confidence data showed a slight improvement compared to the previous month. In Switzerland, the SNB, as expected, left its key interest rates unchanged at 0%, avoiding bringing them back into negative territory.

ASIA

In China, industrial profits grew by 20.4% year-on-year, but manufacturing and services PMIs are struggling to grow and remain in a zone of economic stagnation. Deflation for producers (-2.9% YoY) and consumers (-0.4% YoY) was greater than expected, and both imports and exports were weaker than expected. The money supply (M1) in the country grew as expected by 6% compared to the previous year, providing support for the economy.

Click here to read the full comment >> 

Notice to shareholders

In the attached file you will find the Popso (Suisse) Investment Fund SICAV notice containing the last changes.

Enclosure: Information from Popso (Suisse) Investment Fund SICAV

Global Balanced among the bests in the balanced fund category

CFS Rating, a leading rating agency, conducted an independent analysis of Popso (Suisse) – Global Balanced, awarding it the highest rating – 5 stars – and certifying it internationally as one of the best in the balanced fund category.

This is CFS Rating's overall assessment:

“Popso (Suisse) Global Balanced is a suitable solution for those who want a balanced portfolio, with a bond component focused on euro-denominated securities that helps reduce overall risk. Its track record shows some of the best results in its category, thanks in part to low volatility, which allows the fund to stand out for its above-average risk/return ratio.”

The fund, managed by BPS (SUISSE), is available in Euro, Swiss Franc, and US Dollar classes. 

Click on the following link for the complete analysis by CFS Rating (in Italian): 2025.10_Analisi CFS Rating Popso (Suisse) - Global Balanced_EN

Discover the new range now

In a constantly evolving financial world, the key to success is flexibility, in order to best meet the needs of each investor: this is why we have been constantly renewing ourselves for over 25 years. 

Discover the new range of Popso (Suisse) Investment Fund SICAV investment funds:
• Fixed Income –  For those seeking stability, with investments mainly in bonds
• Strategics – For those who want a dynamic balance of bonds, shares and international currencies
• Equities – For those who focus on growth by investing mainly in shares.

The advantages: 
• Accessibility: access to domestic and international markets in CHF, EUR and USD, even with small amounts 
• Diversification: widely diversified portfolios to reduce risk
• Professionalism: professional and award-winning portfolio management
• Liquidity: redeem your money at any time
• Transparency: we answer all your questions.

Don't miss this opportunity, discover the new range of funds today and give your investments a boost!

Premio Alto Rendimento and CFS Rating

Il Sole 24Ore, Italy’s foremost financial newspaper, awarded BPS (SUISSE) the 2024 Premio Alto Rendimento as runner-up in the “small” category of investment fund managers operating in Italy.
The ranking, based on models developed by the independent firm CFS Rating, assesses the performance of the entire product range in both the current and previous years. 

Based on its methodology, CFS Rating also published the annual guide “I 300 Migliori Fondi”, highlighting the top funds in Italy with the best risk-return profiles out of more than 12,000 available.
Popso (Suisse) Investment Fund SICAV is featured in the 2025 edition with three funds managed by BPS (SUISSE), two in CHF and one in EUR.

More details in the attached file.

Notice to shareholders

In the attached file you will find the Popso (Suisse) Investment Fund SICAV notice containing the last changes.

Enclosure: Information from Popso (Suisse) Investment Fund SICAV

CFS Rating 2024

Every year CFS Rating selects the best 300 investment funds on the Italian market among more than 12'000 products.

We are pleased to inform that the funds Swiss Conservative and Swiss Equity, both managed by BPS (SUISSE), have joined the BEST 300 in the Balanced – Bond Orientation and Equity Europe – Switzerland categories.

More details in the attached file.