Monthly commentary May 2026

Macroeconomics and Asset Allocation

U.S.

In the U.S., employment rose by 172k in May, well above the consensus estimate, with an increase of 120k in the private sector and 52k in the public sector. Data for previous months were revised upward by 93k. Consumer inflation in May rose by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, reaching its highest level since April 2023: 4.2% year-over-year. Both figures were in line with expectations. Core inflation, which excludes energy prices, rose less than expected in May, settling at a more moderate 2.9% year-over-year. Producer price inflation (PPI) came in as a negative surprise, rising 6.5% year-over-year against expectations of 6.4%. However, even here, the “core” PPI, at 4.9%, came in below both the headline figure and expectations (5.4%). Optimism among small U.S. businesses (NFIB) fell unexpectedly. Consumer demand appears resilient, with vehicle sales exceeding expectations in May and a solid increase in construction spending in April. Both the ISM manufacturing and services indices remained in expansionary territory in May.

EUROZONE AND SWITZERLAND

In Europe, the final inflation readings for the continent’s largest economies confirm more moderate price growth compared to the U.S., but despite this, the ECB raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points. Investor sentiment, as measured by the Sentix index, improved slightly in Europe but remains in negative territory. In Germany, industrial orders fell more than expected in April, and industrial production declined by 0.5% compared to the same month last year—a drop that was, however, less severe than the expected -1.1%.

In Switzerland, exports rose by +3% MoM in May, but watch exports fell by -16.6%. Inflation stood at +0.6% MoM, slightly below expectations, with core inflation up 0.3%.

ASIA

In China, exports grew by 19.4% year-over-year, beating estimates, while consumer prices rose by 1.2%, less than expected. April economic activity data were disappointing, but inflation rose more than expected, although at a more moderate pace than in Western economies, with CPI at 2.8% YoY (vs. 1.8% expected) and PPI at 1.2% (vs. 0.9% expected). PPI also rose sharply in Japan in April: 4.9% YoY vs. 3% expected.

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Monthly commentary April 2026

Macro and Asset Allocation

USA

In the United States, the labor market continues to send positive signals: nonfarm payrolls rose by 115,000 in April (vs. an expected 65,000), jobless claims (both initial and continuing) came in lower than expected, and the unemployment rate, unsurprisingly, remained steady at 4.3%. The Services PMI Index, as measured by both the ISM (53.6 from 54 vs. 53.7 expected) and S&P (51 from 51.3 vs. 51.3 expected), is down from the previous month but remains consistent with levels of economic expansion. Durable goods orders remain strong (3.4% YoY) and factory orders rose by 1.6% compared to the previous month. Consumer credit surprised on the upside, and wholesale trade posted solid growth of 2.8% month-over-month against expectations of 1.8%. GDP grew at an annualized rate of 2% in the first quarter of 2026, falling short of expectations of 2.3%. In the quarter, personal consumption grew more than expected at 1.6% (vs. 1.4% expected) but is slowing compared to the previous quarter (1.9%).

EUROZONE and SWITZERLAND

Investor confidence in Europe improved in May, with estimates having anticipated a further deterioration. Producer price inflation rose to 2.1%, exceeding expectations of 1.8%, while retail sales came in line with expectations at 1.2% year-over-year. Preliminary GDP growth estimates came in at +0.8% (vs. an estimated 0.9%), and inflation in April rose, as expected, to 3% year-over-year. Core inflation (excluding energy) was more subdued at 2.2%, in line with expectations. Consumer confidence is not improving and remains at depressed levels, while economic and industrial confidence.

In Switzerland, the manufacturing PMI surprised by rising to 54.5 points from 53.3, while the services PMI fell from 57.2 to 54.8. Inflation in April rose in line with expectations to 0.6% YoY from 0.3% the previous month.

ASIA                                         

In China, the composite (53.1 points) and services (52.6) PMIs measured by RatingDog are rising and are now at levels consistent with economic expansion. The non-manufacturing PMI, however, fell short of expectations and dropped to 49.4 points. Industrial profits rose by 15.8% YoY.

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Monthly commentary March 2026

Macro and Asset Allocation

USA

U.S. labor market data have allayed concerns from previous months and point to a solid economy. In March, the U.S. economy added 178,000 nonfarm payroll jobs, compared to expectations of 65,000, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.3% from 4.4%. Meanwhile, however, inflation is picking up again, with the CPI jumping 0.9% month-over-month in March, rising to 3.3% year-over-year from 2.4% in February, against expectations of 3.4%. The sharp upward movement is almost entirely attributable to the energy component: the Core CPI (which excludes the most volatile components such as energy and food) stood at 2.6%, up only 0.1% from the previous month. On the activity front, the March ISM Services PMI unexpectedly fell to 54 points, with a sharp rise in input prices and a decline in employment; durable goods orders in February fell by 1.3% (vs. an expected -1.4%), and overall business orders remained flat in February. Consumer sentiment, as measured by the University of Michigan, was the lowest on record.

EUROZONE and SWITZERLAND

The first effects of the conflict emerged in the Eurozone PMI surveys conducted by S&P. The composite PMI fell to 50.5 points, driven by a decline in sentiment in the services sector. The manufacturing PMI moved in the opposite direction, rising to 51.4 points. However, the uptick in manufacturing is mainly attributable to longer delivery times, a trend typically associated with stronger demand but, at the moment, more consistent with greater difficulties due to issues in the Strait of Hormuz. Investor confidence (Sentix) plummeted much more than expected.

ASIA                                         

In China, industrial profits exceeded expectations, rising 15.2% year-over-year. Producer price inflation in March came in slightly higher than expected (0.5% month-over-month vs. 0.4% expected; -0.9% in February), while consumer price inflation fell in line with expectations to 1%.

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Monthly commentary February 2026

Macro and Asset Allocation

USA

Inflation in the United States for February was in line with expectations: the headline figure stood at +2.4% year-on-year (YoY); the core figure at +2.5% YoY. The PCE Price Index for January, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, stood at 2.8% YoY, down from 2.9% the previous month. It should be noted, however, that the markets have largely ignored these figures because they do not include the effects of the oil price shock that has occurred over the last two weeks, which will be reflected in upcoming readings. The GDP estimate for the final quarter of 2025 has been revised downwards, from 1.4% to 0.7%, mainly due to lower personal consumption than previously estimated. The ISM Services and Manufacturing PMIs beat expectations, productivity rose more than expected and average wages are on the rise. However, the economy lost 92,000 jobs in February and the unemployment rate, whilst remaining historically low, rose to 4.4% from 4.3%.

EUROZONE and SWITZERLAND

In Europe, aggregate industrial production in January fell short of expectations, dropping by 1.2% compared with the same period last year, whilst analysts had expected a rise of 1.3%. German industrial orders (+3.7% YoY vs expectations of +13.2%) and actual production in January (-1.2% vs -0.8%) fell short of expectations. Meanwhile, confidence in the Eurozone economy (as measured by Sentix) fell more than expected, with investors returning to negative expectations in March. The European unemployment rate fell to a record low of 6.1%, with GDP growing by 1.2% year-on-year. On the inflation front, however, mixed signals are emerging: consumer inflation came in lower than expected (1.9% year-on-year vs. 1.7% forecast), whilst producer inflation surprised on the upside, falling more than expected to 2.1%.

ASIA

In China, February’s exports came as a surprise, growing at a rate of almost +40% compared to last year. There was also a positive surprise from February’s industrial production, which grew by 6.3% year-on-year (vs. expectations of +5.3%), and from retail sales: +2.8% vs. +2.5% expected. Official PMIs (more focused on the domestic economy), however, were disappointing, all falling below the 50-point threshold, whilst private PMIs (focused on exporting companies) were positive, with figures well above the expansion threshold: Manufacturing 52.1, Services 56.7 and Composite 55.4.

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Monthly commentary January 2026

Macro and Asset Allocation

USA

The economic situation in the United States continues to be described in divergent terms by positive "hard" data (actual results) and "soft" data (surveys) with negative surprises. While durable goods orders grew by 5.3% month-on-month in November, beating growth expectations of 4%, January manufacturing and services PMIs were lower than estimated at 51.9 and 52.5 respectively. Consumer confidence, as measured by the Conference Board survey, was well below estimates and fell to its lowest level since 2014. Despite this, consumers continue to increase their spending, as evidenced by the +7.1% year-on-year increase in the Redbook Index, which measures retail sales growth and anticipates aggregate retail sales. Producer inflation surprised on the upside, rising 0.5% month-on-month against expectations of 0.2%.

EUROZONE and SWITZERLAND

In Europe, at the aggregate level, the manufacturing PMI grew more than expected to 49.4 points, returning close to the expansion threshold, but the services PMI fell unexpectedly to 51.9 points from 52.4. Fourth-quarter GDP growth was in line with expectations at 1.3%. Core consumer inflation fell unexpectedly to 2.2% year-on-year. December retail sales disappointed expectations, growing only 1.3% against estimates of 1.7%, but the unemployment rate fell unexpectedly to 6.3% from 6.5%. In Germany, despite industrial orders for December growing much more than expected (13% vs 1.2% year-on-year), industrial output fell more than expected: -0.6% year-on-year.

ASIA

In China, official PMIs, both manufacturing and non-manufacturing, were lower than expected, at 49.3 and 49.4 respectively, while private PMIs (RatingDog) expanded to 50.3 and 52.3 respectively. The difficult situation in the real estate sector continues, with new home prices falling by 0.4% month-on-month. Growth in retail sales and investment in capital goods slowed more than expected to 0.9% year-on-year and -3.8% for the year, respectively.

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Monthly commentary December 2025

Macro and Asset Allocation

USA

Third consecutive cut by the Fed: the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to reduce benchmark rates by 25 basis points (bps) with three dissenting votes. One member advocated a 50 bps reduction, while two voted to keep rates unchanged. The Services PMI, the sector with the greatest weight in the US economy, came in at 54.4, up and higher than expected thanks to the most important sub-components performing better than expected; the Manufacturing PMI, on the other hand, was lower than expected at 47.9 points and returned to a clear contraction in the sector. The new orders and employment components improved slightly but remained low at 47.7 and 44.9 respectively. US private sector payrolls (ADP) rebounded in December with +41k units, unemployment benefit claims rose less than expected and the unemployment rate fell more than expected (4.5%): from 4.6% to 4.4%. The data confirmed a fragile picture but did not change expectations for the Fed (two cuts fully priced in for 2026).

EUROZONE and SWITZERLAND

In Europe, the ECB left rates unchanged, reiterating that future decisions will depend on macro data to be released in the coming months. Consumer inflation fell unexpectedly to 2.3% year-on-year, while headline inflation is falling as expected. The final composite PMI reading is slightly worse than the previous figure (51.5 from 51.9) but indicates that the economy is still expanding, thanks mainly to the services component (52.4).

ASIA

China's policy priorities are emerging: the Politburo has indicated domestic demand as the top priority for 2026, reducing dependence on exports. Monetary and fiscal policies will remain "moderately accommodative" and "proactive", although policy statements suggest that stimulus will not exceed this year's levels. Consumer prices rose 0.8% year-on-year, as expected, while producer prices fell less than expected to -1.9% year-on-year. The services and composite PMIs were 52 and 51.3 points, respectively.

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Notice to shareholders

In the attached file you will find the Popso (Suisse) Investment Fund SICAV notice containing the last changes.

Enclosure: Information from Popso (Suisse) Investment Fund SICAV

2026 CFS Ratings Awards: Global Balanced and Global Conservative

Popso (Suisse) Investment Fund SICAV among the best funds of 2025 according to CFS Rating

Based on its own models, CFS Rating has compiled its annual “Top 300 Funds” guide, published by “Il Sole 24 Ore,” which lists the funds with the best risk-return ratio available in Italy from among the more than 12,000 options.

We are pleased to announce that Popso (Suisse) Investment Fund SICAV is featured in the 2026 edition with two funds managed by BPS (SUISSE).

More details in the attached file.

Notice to shareholders

In the attached file you will find the Popso (Suisse) Investment Fund SICAV notice containing the last changes.

Enclosure: Information from Popso (Suisse) Investment Fund SICAV

Global Balanced among the bests in the balanced fund category

CFS Rating, a leading rating agency, conducted an independent analysis of Popso (Suisse) – Global Balanced, awarding it the highest rating – 5 stars – and certifying it internationally as one of the best in the balanced fund category.

This is CFS Rating's overall assessment:

“Popso (Suisse) Global Balanced is a suitable solution for those who want a balanced portfolio, with a bond component focused on euro-denominated securities that helps reduce overall risk. Its track record shows some of the best results in its category, thanks in part to low volatility, which allows the fund to stand out for its above-average risk/return ratio.”

The fund, managed by BPS (SUISSE), is available in Euro, Swiss Franc, and US Dollar classes. 

Click on the following link for the complete analysis by CFS Rating (in Italian): 2025.10_Analisi CFS Rating Popso (Suisse) - Global Balanced_EN

Discover the new range now

In a constantly evolving financial world, the key to success is flexibility, in order to best meet the needs of each investor: this is why we have been constantly renewing ourselves for over 25 years. 

Discover the new range of Popso (Suisse) Investment Fund SICAV investment funds:
• Fixed Income –  For those seeking stability, with investments mainly in bonds
• Strategics – For those who want a dynamic balance of bonds, shares and international currencies
• Equities – For those who focus on growth by investing mainly in shares.

The advantages: 
• Accessibility: access to domestic and international markets in CHF, EUR and USD, even with small amounts 
• Diversification: widely diversified portfolios to reduce risk
• Professionalism: professional and award-winning portfolio management
• Liquidity: redeem your money at any time
• Transparency: we answer all your questions.

Don't miss this opportunity, discover the new range of funds today and give your investments a boost!

Premio Alto Rendimento and CFS Rating

Il Sole 24Ore, Italy’s foremost financial newspaper, awarded BPS (SUISSE) the 2024 Premio Alto Rendimento as runner-up in the “small” category of investment fund managers operating in Italy.
The ranking, based on models developed by the independent firm CFS Rating, assesses the performance of the entire product range in both the current and previous years. 

Based on its methodology, CFS Rating also published the annual guide “I 300 Migliori Fondi”, highlighting the top funds in Italy with the best risk-return profiles out of more than 12,000 available.
Popso (Suisse) Investment Fund SICAV is featured in the 2025 edition with three funds managed by BPS (SUISSE), two in CHF and one in EUR.

More details in the attached file.