Monthly commentary June 2025

Macro and Asset Allocation

USA

In the US, the manufacturing PMI was published at 52.9 and the ISM manufacturing index at 49, both above expectations. The ISM services index was also published at 50.8, above expectations and above the previous figure (50.5 and 49.9 respectively). The unemployment rate was published below expectations at 4.1% (expected 4.3%) and jobless claims were also below expectations at 233k (expected 241K, previous 236K). NFP data was published above expectations at 144K (estimate 106K, previous 139K). Durable goods orders were published at 16.4% (in line with expectations and previous figures) and factory orders at 8.2% (in line with expectations and higher than the previous figure of -3.7%).

EUROZONE and SWITZERLAND

In the EU, the manufacturing PMI was published at 49.5, slightly above expectations (49.4). The CPI Mom was published at 0.3% and the CPI YoY at 2.3%, both in line with expectations. Unemployment figures were published slightly above expectations at 6.3% (expected 6.2%). German consumer confidence fell slightly for the first time in four months, while the IFO and PMI indices for June slightly exceeded expectations.

ASIA

In China, the manufacturing PMI was published at 49.7 and the non-manufacturing PMI at 50.5, both slightly above expectations (49.6 and 50.3, respectively). May retail sales grew well above expectations (6.4% y/y from 5.1% and vs. 4.9% expected), but were largely supported by government incentives for purchases of household appliances and electronic devices.

Click here to read the full comment >> 

Monthly commentary May 2025

Macro and Asset Allocation

USA

US durable goods orders posted -6.3% MoM, the worst figure since October. The structurally volatile aviation sector contributed -5% to the overall decline. However, the decline showed weakness in manufacturing activity. Consumer confidence surprised on the upside at 98 (consensus at 87.1). Second revision of Q1 GDP shows a marginal improvement to -0.2% QoQ (from -0.3% previously). Investment provides partial support, driven by precautionary inventory build-up ahead of tariffs. Domestic demand remains weak, with consumption continuing to disappoint. Unemployment claims rise to 240,000. Core PCE inflation: MoM at 0.1%, YoY at 2.5%, Personal Income rises to +0.7% MoM and Personal Spending slows to +0.2% (from +0.7% previously). University of Michigan sentiment improved to 52.2 from 50.8, the lowest level since 2009. Worryingly, the published data of the MNI Chicago PMI fell to 40.5.

EUROZONE and SWITZERLAND

In Europe, the CPI MoM at 0.6% and CPI YoY at 2.2% were published, both in line with expectations, as was also the CPI Core YoY at 2.7%. Published were the Manufacturing PMI, improving slightly to 49.4, and the Services PMI, declining to 48.9. Published was the Consumer Confidence figure (source: European Commission), improving slightly to -15.2. At the moment, the European picture appears stable, with inflation still expected to fall, which could lead to further cuts by the ECB. Watch out for the figure for the manufacturing sector: this outperformance compared to the services sector, considering the current uncertainty surrounding duties, is caused by the fact that many US companies are anticipating orders before duties are introduced.

ASIA

China's manufacturing PMI improved to 49.5 from the previous reading of 49. The temporary truce on tariffs and stimulus from the People's Bank of China provided support, but the situation remains fragile and closely dependent on the evolution of trade tensions. Data on retail sales at 5.1%, below expectations, and industrial production at 6.1%, above expectations. However, both data showed some slowdown, impacted mainly by trade tensions.

Click here to read the full comment >> 

Monthly commentary April 2025

Macro and Asset Allocation

USA

In the US, the ISM Services index was released at 51.6, higher than expected and in contrast to the manufacturing sector (below 50). Of particular note was the paid prices component of the ISM Services, which rose to 65.1 (highest since 2023), fuelling concerns about inflationary pressures. The trade deficit remained high due to a surge in imports (+5.0%), however, with many companies anticipating purchases before the new tariffs took effect. Initial claims for unemployment benefits fell to 228,000, highlighting a still robust labour market. Q1 GDP declined slightly to -0.3% qoq, but with robust consumption, strong imports depressing growth and a rising Core PCE (inflation). After a series of markedly negative regional Fed district surveys, ISM Manufacturing appears down, but less than expected at 48.7 (previous month 49.0), with new orders at 47.2, also down.

EUROZONE and SWITZERLAND

In the Eurozone, the Services PMI was published, falling to 50.1 (from 51.0 in March), marking the lowest reading since November 2024. The Composite PMI fell to 50.4 (from 50.9), indicating slowing economic growth. The New Orders figure at 49.1 showed a contraction (eleventh consecutive month). PPI published, down -1.4% MoM and up 2.5% YoY. Q1 GDP growth in Europe exceeded expectations with +0.4% YoY, partly positively influenced by the strong Irish figure, which is volatile and often revised. HCOB's Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.0 versus expectations at 48.7. Watch out, however, for April's CPI Core rising at +2.7% YoY (expectations at +2.5%)

ASIA

In China published the services PMI (Caixin) down to 50.7 (from 51.9 in March), registering the lowest value since September 2024 and below expectations (51.8). The composite PMI dropped to 51.1 (from 51.8). The weakening Chinese macro picture, combined with expectations of export contraction due to tariffs, raises concerns about China's ability to meet its growth targets.

Click here to read the full comment >> 

Monthly commentary March 2025

Macro and Asset Allocation

USA

In the U.S., preliminary aggregate PMIs (as measured by S&P) were better than expected (53.5 vs. 50.9) and well above the watershed level between economic expansion and contraction (50). The improvement was mainly due to a sharp rebound in services. Meanwhile, however, consumer confidence (both Conference Board and U. of Michigan) continued its decline. Americans are primarily concerned about economic uncertainty in the near future, inflation (which is expected to rise sharply) and the labor market. The "soft" data show strong concern but the "hard" data were more benign: personal incomes increase more than expected, personal spending rebounds from the previous month, and labor market data are in line with expectations. The labor market is still solid (unemployment at 4.2 percent) and orders to industry were higher than expected. However, these data refer to the period just ended and do not fully include the effects of the recently announced tariffs.

EUROZONE and SWITZERLAND

In Europe, the improvement in leading indicators of economic activity continues: manufacturing PMIs are still improving (although they are still at a level that predicts slight manufacturing contraction) while, at the aggregate level, the economy continues improve and is slight expansion driven by services. Economic expectations (as measured by the IFO) are improving in Germany while inflation in the major economies (France, Germany, Italy) is "under control" and in line with the ECB's target. Leading indicators for the Chinese economy are also improving slightly with national composite PMIs at a level consistent with economic expansion (51.4). In the Zone, year-on-year retail sales grew more than expected (2.3% vs. 1.9%) and composite PMIs remain in the economic expansion zone, driven by services. The unemployment rate falls to 6.1% (from 6.2%) and inflation continues to send reassuring signals

ASIA

In China, PMIs continue to indicate an expanding economy in both the service and manufacturing sectors. Surprising on the positive side was the growth in industrial production, which came in at +5.9 percent against firm expectations of +5.3 percent.

Click here to read the full comment >> 

Monthly commentary February 2025

Macro and Asset Allocation

USA

In the USA in February, unemployment rose to 4.1%, slightly above expectations, with new non-farm jobs (Nonfarm Payrolls) at 151k against the expected 160k and with a slight drop in wage growth to 0.3% mom from 0.5% the previous month. On the other hand, the ADP Employment Change figure was very low, signalling only 77k new jobs against expectations of almost double that amount. The ISM Manufacturing and Services indices scored 50.3 and 53.5 respectively, the former slightly below and the latter slightly above expectations. In terms of growth, the drop in Consumer Confidence is somewhat worrying. This was already evident in the previous week and was also confirmed by the index recorded by the Conference Board for February, which stood at 98.3 against expectations of 102.5. January's real estate figures were also negative, although influenced by the weather, with a drop in building permits (-0.6%), sales of new homes (-10.5%) and sales of existing homes already started (-5.2%) compared to the previous month. On the other hand, orders for durable goods were very positive at +3.1% mom.

EUROZONE and SWITZERLAND

In the Eurozone, the HCOB PMI Services for February came in at 50.6, practically in line with expectations. Retail sales in January were up +1.5% yoy against expectations of +2.0%. On the other hand, GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2024 was revised upwards with a final figure for the year of +1.2% yoy. The preliminary HCOB Manufacturing PMI for February was 47.6 against expectations of 47.3. Consumer inflation in February was +2.4% yoy and Core inflation was +2.6%, both slightly above expectations of +2.3% yoy and +2.5% respectively. In Switzerland too, the Manufacturing PMI exceeded expectations, reaching 49.6 against 48.2.

In Switzerland, the Services PMI remains solid at 56.8 and January inflation stood at +0.3% yoy with the Core at +0.9%, both above expectations, although still at very low levels.

ASIA

In China, in February, the Caixin PMI Services index scored 51.4, above expectations, the PMI Manufacturing index came out at 50.2 against expectations of 49.9, while the Non-Manufacturing index was 50.4 in line with expectations. Import (-8.4% yoy), export (+2.0% yoy) and inflation (CPI -0.7% and PPI -2.2% yoy) were weak and below expectations. The Central Bank (PBoC) left interest rates unchanged. Also in Asia, February export figures were mixed, with Taiwan at -3.0% yoy (vs. expectations of +2.7%) and South Korea

at +16.0% yoy for the first 20 days of the month (after -5.1% the previous month).

Click here to read the full comment >> 

Monthly comment January 2025

Macro and Asset Allocation

USA

In the U.S., inflation "bounced back," with January data coming in higher than expected, both on the CPI side (+3.0% yoy vs. +2.9% expected and Core +3.3% vs. +3.1%) and PPI (+3.5% vs. +3.3% and Core +3.6% vs. +3.3%). In short, the trend of recent months around 3% or even a small uptick is confirmed, although it must be said that it is quite common to have upward surprises in the first months of the year on inflation. Otherwise, January retail sales came in at -0.9% mom versus expectations at -0.2%, so a very negative figure, but upwardly revised from December and with weather and fire effects to be evaluated. In contrast, industrial production was solid at +0.5% mom. The ISM Manufacturing and Services indices showed converging trends, with the former index rising above expectations to 50.9 (and New Orders rising to 55.1) and the latter falling to 52.8, below expectations. Being the first week of the month, we had January labor market data with evidence of new job creation at 143k units (Nonfarm Payrolls), so below expectations and unemployment rate at 4.0%, slightly below expectations. Of some concern is the rise in hourly wages to +4.1% yoy versus expectations at +3.9.

EUROZONE and SWITZERLAND

In the Euro Zone, fourth quarter GDP growth was estimated at +0.9% yoy in line with expectations. December industrial production came in at -1.1% mom against expectations at -0.6%, with the Italian figure making a lot of "noise" given the sharp decline of -3.1% mom. In Switzerland, January inflation came in at +0.4% yoy in line with expectations, while Core sharply beat expectations at +0.9% yoy versus +0.6%. January's inidce PMI Services stood at 51.3, essentially stable. January producer price inflation (PPI) was +0.4% mom, but with zero growth over the previous year. Retail sales in January, on the other hand, registered +1.9% yoy. Unemployment in Switzerland stood at 2.7%, in line with expectations.

ASIA

In China upwardly surprised January credit expansion with aggregate financing at 7.06 trn yuan against expectations at 6.5 trn yuan. More restrained than expected, however, was the growth of M2 monetary aggregate at +7.0% yoy against expectations at +7.3%.  The Caixin Services PMI index stood at 51.0, down and below expectations (52.4). January's CPI yoy registered +0.5%, while PPI remains negative at -2.3% yoy.

Click here to read the full comment >> 

Discover the new range now

In a constantly evolving financial world, the key to success is flexibility, in order to best meet the needs of each investor: this is why we have been constantly renewing ourselves for over 25 years. 

Discover the new range of Popso (Suisse) Investment Fund SICAV investment funds:
• Fixed Income –  For those seeking stability, with investments mainly in bonds
• Strategics – For those who want a dynamic balance of bonds, shares and international currencies
• Equities – For those who focus on growth by investing mainly in shares.

The advantages: 
• Accessibility: access to domestic and international markets in CHF, EUR and USD, even with small amounts 
• Diversification: widely diversified portfolios to reduce risk
• Professionalism: professional and award-winning portfolio management
• Liquidity: redeem your money at any time
• Transparency: we answer all your questions.

Don't miss this opportunity, discover the new range of funds today and give your investments a boost!

Premio Alto Rendimento and CFS Rating

Il Sole 24Ore, Italy’s foremost financial newspaper, awarded BPS (SUISSE) the 2024 Premio Alto Rendimento as runner-up in the “small” category of investment fund managers operating in Italy.
The ranking, based on models developed by the independent firm CFS Rating, assesses the performance of the entire product range in both the current and previous years. 

Based on its methodology, CFS Rating also published the annual guide “I 300 Migliori Fondi”, highlighting the top funds in Italy with the best risk-return profiles out of more than 12,000 available.
Popso (Suisse) Investment Fund SICAV is featured in the 2025 edition with three funds managed by BPS (SUISSE), two in CHF and one in EUR.

More details in the attached file.

Notice to shareholders

In the attached file you will find the Popso (Suisse) Investment Fund SICAV notice containing the last changes.

Enclosure: Information from Popso (Suisse) Investment Fund SICAV

CFS Rating 2024

Every year CFS Rating selects the best 300 investment funds on the Italian market among more than 12'000 products.

We are pleased to inform that the funds Swiss Conservative and Swiss Equity, both managed by BPS (SUISSE), have joined the BEST 300 in the Balanced – Bond Orientation and Equity Europe – Switzerland categories.

More details in the attached file.

Notice to shareholders

In the attached file you will find the Popso (Suisse) Investment Fund SICAV notice containing the last changes.

Enclosure: Information from Popso (Suisse) Investment Fund SICAV

Notice to shareholders

In the attached file you will find the Popso (Suisse) Investment Fund SICAV notice containing the last changes.

Enclosure: Information from Popso (Suisse) Investment Fund SICAV