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18/06/2026

Monthly commentary May 2026

Popso (Suisse) Investment Fund SICAV

Macroeconomics and Asset Allocation

U.S.

In the U.S., employment rose by 172k in May, well above the consensus estimate, with an increase of 120k in the private sector and 52k in the public sector. Data for previous months were revised upward by 93k. Consumer inflation in May rose by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, reaching its highest level since April 2023: 4.2% year-over-year. Both figures were in line with expectations. Core inflation, which excludes energy prices, rose less than expected in May, settling at a more moderate 2.9% year-over-year. Producer price inflation (PPI) came in as a negative surprise, rising 6.5% year-over-year against expectations of 6.4%. However, even here, the “core” PPI, at 4.9%, came in below both the headline figure and expectations (5.4%). Optimism among small U.S. businesses (NFIB) fell unexpectedly. Consumer demand appears resilient, with vehicle sales exceeding expectations in May and a solid increase in construction spending in April. Both the ISM manufacturing and services indices remained in expansionary territory in May.

 

EUROZONE AND SWITZERLAND

In Europe, the final inflation readings for the continent’s largest economies confirm more moderate price growth compared to the U.S., but despite this, the ECB raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points. Investor sentiment, as measured by the Sentix index, improved slightly in Europe but remains in negative territory. In Germany, industrial orders fell more than expected in April, and industrial production declined by 0.5% compared to the same month last year—a drop that was, however, less severe than the expected -1.1%.

In Switzerland, exports rose by +3% MoM in May, but watch exports fell by -16.6%. Inflation stood at +0.6% MoM, slightly below expectations, with core inflation up 0.3%.

 

ASIA

In China, exports grew by 19.4% year-over-year, beating estimates, while consumer prices rose by 1.2%, less than expected. April economic activity data were disappointing, but inflation rose more than expected, although at a more moderate pace than in Western economies, with CPI at 2.8% YoY (vs. 1.8% expected) and PPI at 1.2% (vs. 0.9% expected). PPI also rose sharply in Japan in April: 4.9% YoY vs. 3% expected.

 

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20/05/2026

Monthly commentary April 2026

Popso (Suisse) Investment Fund SICAV

Macro and Asset Allocation

 

USA

In the United States, the labor market continues to send positive signals: nonfarm payrolls rose by 115,000 in April (vs. an expected 65,000), jobless claims (both initial and continuing) came in lower than expected, and the unemployment rate, unsurprisingly, remained steady at 4.3%. The Services PMI Index, as measured by both the ISM (53.6 from 54 vs. 53.7 expected) and S&P (51 from 51.3 vs. 51.3 expected), is down from the previous month but remains consistent with levels of economic expansion. Durable goods orders remain strong (3.4% YoY) and factory orders rose by 1.6% compared to the previous month. Consumer credit surprised on the upside, and wholesale trade posted solid growth of 2.8% month-over-month against expectations of 1.8%. GDP grew at an annualized rate of 2% in the first quarter of 2026, falling short of expectations of 2.3%. In the quarter, personal consumption grew more than expected at 1.6% (vs. 1.4% expected) but is slowing compared to the previous quarter (1.9%).

 

EUROZONE and SWITZERLAND

Investor confidence in Europe improved in May, with estimates having anticipated a further deterioration. Producer price inflation rose to 2.1%, exceeding expectations of 1.8%, while retail sales came in line with expectations at 1.2% year-over-year. Preliminary GDP growth estimates came in at +0.8% (vs. an estimated 0.9%), and inflation in April rose, as expected, to 3% year-over-year. Core inflation (excluding energy) was more subdued at 2.2%, in line with expectations. Consumer confidence is not improving and remains at depressed levels, while economic and industrial confidence.

In Switzerland, the manufacturing PMI surprised by rising to 54.5 points from 53.3, while the services PMI fell from 57.2 to 54.8. Inflation in April rose in line with expectations to 0.6% YoY from 0.3% the previous month.

 

ASIA                                         

In China, the composite (53.1 points) and services (52.6) PMIs measured by RatingDog are rising and are now at levels consistent with economic expansion. The non-manufacturing PMI, however, fell short of expectations and dropped to 49.4 points. Industrial profits rose by 15.8% YoY.

 

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30/09/2024
25th anniversary SICAV

Presentation of Roberto Mastromarchi, board member Popso (Suisse) Investment Fund SICAV

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