Values that grow over time

Macro and Asset Allocation

USA

In the US, the manufacturing PMI was published at 52.9 and the ISM manufacturing index at 49, both above expectations. The ISM services index was also published at 50.8, above expectations and above the previous figure (50.5 and 49.9 respectively). The unemployment rate was published below expectations at 4.1% (expected 4.3%) and jobless claims were also below expectations at 233k (expected 241K, previous 236K). NFP data was published above expectations at 144K (estimate 106K, previous 139K). Durable goods orders were published at 16.4% (in line with expectations and previous figures) and factory orders at 8.2% (in line with expectations and higher than the previous figure of -3.7%).

EUROZONE and SWITZERLAND

In the EU, the manufacturing PMI was published at 49.5, slightly above expectations (49.4). The CPI Mom was published at 0.3% and the CPI YoY at 2.3%, both in line with expectations. Unemployment figures were published slightly above expectations at 6.3% (expected 6.2%). German consumer confidence fell slightly for the first time in four months, while the IFO and PMI indices for June slightly exceeded expectations.

ASIA

In China, the manufacturing PMI was published at 49.7 and the non-manufacturing PMI at 50.5, both slightly above expectations (49.6 and 50.3, respectively). May retail sales grew well above expectations (6.4% y/y from 5.1% and vs. 4.9% expected), but were largely supported by government incentives for purchases of household appliances and electronic devices.

Macro and Asset Allocation

USA

US durable goods orders posted -6.3% MoM, the worst figure since October. The structurally volatile aviation sector contributed -5% to the overall decline. However, the decline showed weakness in manufacturing activity. Consumer confidence surprised on the upside at 98 (consensus at 87.1). Second revision of Q1 GDP shows a marginal improvement to -0.2% QoQ (from -0.3% previously). Investment provides partial support, driven by precautionary inventory build-up ahead of tariffs. Domestic demand remains weak, with consumption continuing to disappoint. Unemployment claims rise to 240,000. Core PCE inflation: MoM at 0.1%, YoY at 2.5%, Personal Income rises to +0.7% MoM and Personal Spending slows to +0.2% (from +0.7% previously). University of Michigan sentiment improved to 52.2 from 50.8, the lowest level since 2009. Worryingly, the published data of the MNI Chicago PMI fell to 40.5.

EUROZONE and SWITZERLAND

In Europe, the CPI MoM at 0.6% and CPI YoY at 2.2% were published, both in line with expectations, as was also the CPI Core YoY at 2.7%. Published were the Manufacturing PMI, improving slightly to 49.4, and the Services PMI, declining to 48.9. Published was the Consumer Confidence figure (source: European Commission), improving slightly to -15.2. At the moment, the European picture appears stable, with inflation still expected to fall, which could lead to further cuts by the ECB. Watch out for the figure for the manufacturing sector: this outperformance compared to the services sector, considering the current uncertainty surrounding duties, is caused by the fact that many US companies are anticipating orders before duties are introduced.

ASIA

China's manufacturing PMI improved to 49.5 from the previous reading of 49. The temporary truce on tariffs and stimulus from the People's Bank of China provided support, but the situation remains fragile and closely dependent on the evolution of trade tensions. Data on retail sales at 5.1%, below expectations, and industrial production at 6.1%, above expectations. However, both data showed some slowdown, impacted mainly by trade tensions.

Macro and Asset Allocation

USA

In the US, the ISM Services index was released at 51.6, higher than expected and in contrast to the manufacturing sector (below 50). Of particular note was the paid prices component of the ISM Services, which rose to 65.1 (highest since 2023), fuelling concerns about inflationary pressures. The trade deficit remained high due to a surge in imports (+5.0%), however, with many companies anticipating purchases before the new tariffs took effect. Initial claims for unemployment benefits fell to 228,000, highlighting a still robust labour market. Q1 GDP declined slightly to -0.3% qoq, but with robust consumption, strong imports depressing growth and a rising Core PCE (inflation). After a series of markedly negative regional Fed district surveys, ISM Manufacturing appears down, but less than expected at 48.7 (previous month 49.0), with new orders at 47.2, also down.

EUROZONE and SWITZERLAND

In the Eurozone, the Services PMI was published, falling to 50.1 (from 51.0 in March), marking the lowest reading since November 2024. The Composite PMI fell to 50.4 (from 50.9), indicating slowing economic growth. The New Orders figure at 49.1 showed a contraction (eleventh consecutive month). PPI published, down -1.4% MoM and up 2.5% YoY. Q1 GDP growth in Europe exceeded expectations with +0.4% YoY, partly positively influenced by the strong Irish figure, which is volatile and often revised. HCOB's Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.0 versus expectations at 48.7. Watch out, however, for April's CPI Core rising at +2.7% YoY (expectations at +2.5%)

ASIA

In China published the services PMI (Caixin) down to 50.7 (from 51.9 in March), registering the lowest value since September 2024 and below expectations (51.8). The composite PMI dropped to 51.1 (from 51.8). The weakening Chinese macro picture, combined with expectations of export contraction due to tariffs, raises concerns about China's ability to meet its growth targets.