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16/10/2025

Monthly commentary September 2025

Popso (Suisse) Investment Fund SICAV

Macro and Asset Allocation

 

USA

US data continues to point to economic strength. The GDP growth estimate for the second quarter of 2025 was raised by 0.5 percentage points to an annualised growth rate of 3.8%. The services and manufacturing PMIs measured by S&P fell to 53.9 and 52, respectively, in line with expectations and in expansion territory. Jobless claims fell by 14k to 218k, the lowest level since July and well below expectations of 233k. Core PCE inflation stood at 2.9% year-on-year in August, in line with expectations. Personal income (+0.4%) and consumption (+0.6%) grew slightly more than expected. The positive data was reflected in the US GDP growth estimates for the current quarter provided by the Atlanta Fed (GDPNow), which rose to a solid 3.9%.

 

EUROZONE and SWITZERLAND

In Europe, flash estimates of the composite PMI rose to 51.2 for September, the highest level in 16 months. The composite figure was driven by 0.9 point growth in services (51.4), which offset a 1.4 point decline in manufacturing (49.5). At regional level, the German services sector surprised on the upside, rising from 49.3 to 52.5. Consumer confidence and economic confidence data showed a slight improvement compared to the previous month. In Switzerland, the SNB, as expected, left its key interest rates unchanged at 0%, avoiding bringing them back into negative territory.

 

ASIA

In China, industrial profits grew by 20.4% year-on-year, but manufacturing and services PMIs are struggling to grow and remain in a zone of economic stagnation. Deflation for producers (-2.9% YoY) and consumers (-0.4% YoY) was greater than expected, and both imports and exports were weaker than expected. The money supply (M1) in the country grew as expected by 6% compared to the previous year, providing support for the economy.

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11/09/2025

Monthly commentary August 2025

Popso (Suisse) Investment Fund SICAV

Macro and Asset Allocation

 

USA

New jobs created in the US in August stood at 22k, well below expectations of 75k. Jobless claims fell by 5k to 229k, as expected. However, the pace of hiring slowed significantly in the last quarter. The unemployment rate also rose to 4.3%. The ISM Manufacturing Index grew less than expected to 48.7, but the new orders sub-index rose to 51.4, exceeding expectations. The ISM Services Index (52 vs. 51) and its new orders sub-index (56 vs. 51.1) also beat expectations. Core inflation (PCE) was in line with analysts' expectations at +2.9% year-on-year, but up from the previous month and at its highest level since February 2025. Although the figure is above the 2% target, the Fed is expected to cut rates at its next meeting with the aim of preventing further weakness in the labour market. US economic growth for the second quarter was revised upwards to 3.3% from the initial estimate of 3%, signalling a resilient economy despite tariffs. Consumer spending grew by 0.5%, as expected, while durable goods orders fell much less than expected: -2.8% vs -4%. Consumer confidence deteriorated in August, but less than expected, mainly due to concerns about inflation and employment.

 

EUROZONE and SWITZERLAND

In the Eurozone, the HCOB Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.7, above expectations, while the Services PMI fell slightly to 50.5. Core CPI yoy rose by 2.3% in August, slightly above expectations. At the aggregate level, consumer confidence did not improve in August and remains flat and negative, while confidence in the economy deteriorated slightly. Inflation in Italy and France remains below the ECB's target, while German inflation rose more than expected to 2.2% year-on-year. In the UK, annual inflation rose to its highest level in 18 months, increasing the likelihood that the BoE will hold off at its next meeting. Consumer prices were 3.8% higher in July than in the same month last year, up from 3.6% in June.

 

ASIA

In the Eurozone, the HCOB Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.7, above expectations, while the PMI Services fell slightly to 50.5. Core CPI yoy rose by 2.3% in August, slightly above expectations. At the aggregate level, consumer confidence did not improve in August and remains flat and negative, while confidence in the economy deteriorated slightly. Inflation in Italy and France remains below the ECB's target, while German inflation rose more than expected to 2.2% year-on-year. In the UK, annual inflation rose to its highest level in 18 months, increasing the likelihood that the BoE will hold off on raising rates at its next meeting. Consumer prices were 3.8% higher in July than in the same month last year, up from 3.6% in June.

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30/09/2024
25th anniversary SICAV

Presentation of Roberto Mastromarchi, board member Popso (Suisse) Investment Fund SICAV

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