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News & Monthly comments

23/03/2026

Monthly commentary February 2026

Popso (Suisse) Investment Fund SICAV

Macro and Asset Allocation

 

USA

Inflation in the United States for February was in line with expectations: the headline figure stood at +2.4% year-on-year (YoY); the core figure at +2.5% YoY. The PCE Price Index for January, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, stood at 2.8% YoY, down from 2.9% the previous month. It should be noted, however, that the markets have largely ignored these figures because they do not include the effects of the oil price shock that has occurred over the last two weeks, which will be reflected in upcoming readings. The GDP estimate for the final quarter of 2025 has been revised downwards, from 1.4% to 0.7%, mainly due to lower personal consumption than previously estimated. The ISM Services and Manufacturing PMIs beat expectations, productivity rose more than expected and average wages are on the rise. However, the economy lost 92,000 jobs in February and the unemployment rate, whilst remaining historically low, rose to 4.4% from 4.3%.

 

EUROZONE and SWITZERLAND

In Europe, aggregate industrial production in January fell short of expectations, dropping by 1.2% compared with the same period last year, whilst analysts had expected a rise of 1.3%. German industrial orders (+3.7% YoY vs expectations of +13.2%) and actual production in January (-1.2% vs -0.8%) fell short of expectations. Meanwhile, confidence in the Eurozone economy (as measured by Sentix) fell more than expected, with investors returning to negative expectations in March. The European unemployment rate fell to a record low of 6.1%, with GDP growing by 1.2% year-on-year. On the inflation front, however, mixed signals are emerging: consumer inflation came in lower than expected (1.9% year-on-year vs. 1.7% forecast), whilst producer inflation surprised on the upside, falling more than expected to 2.1%.

 

ASIA

In China, February’s exports came as a surprise, growing at a rate of almost +40% compared to last year. There was also a positive surprise from February’s industrial production, which grew by 6.3% year-on-year (vs. expectations of +5.3%), and from retail sales: +2.8% vs. +2.5% expected. Official PMIs (more focused on the domestic economy), however, were disappointing, all falling below the 50-point threshold, whilst private PMIs (focused on exporting companies) were positive, with figures well above the expansion threshold: Manufacturing 52.1, Services 56.7 and Composite 55.4.

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13/02/2026

Monthly commentary January 2026

Popso (Suisse) Investment Fund SICAV

Macro and Asset Allocation

 

USA

The economic situation in the United States continues to be described in divergent terms by positive "hard" data (actual results) and "soft" data (surveys) with negative surprises. While durable goods orders grew by 5.3% month-on-month in November, beating growth expectations of 4%, January manufacturing and services PMIs were lower than estimated at 51.9 and 52.5 respectively. Consumer confidence, as measured by the Conference Board survey, was well below estimates and fell to its lowest level since 2014. Despite this, consumers continue to increase their spending, as evidenced by the +7.1% year-on-year increase in the Redbook Index, which measures retail sales growth and anticipates aggregate retail sales. Producer inflation surprised on the upside, rising 0.5% month-on-month against expectations of 0.2%.

 

EUROZONE and SWITZERLAND

In Europe, at the aggregate level, the manufacturing PMI grew more than expected to 49.4 points, returning close to the expansion threshold, but the services PMI fell unexpectedly to 51.9 points from 52.4. Fourth-quarter GDP growth was in line with expectations at 1.3%. Core consumer inflation fell unexpectedly to 2.2% year-on-year. December retail sales disappointed expectations, growing only 1.3% against estimates of 1.7%, but the unemployment rate fell unexpectedly to 6.3% from 6.5%. In Germany, despite industrial orders for December growing much more than expected (13% vs 1.2% year-on-year), industrial output fell more than expected: -0.6% year-on-year.

 

ASIA

In China, official PMIs, both manufacturing and non-manufacturing, were lower than expected, at 49.3 and 49.4 respectively, while private PMIs (RatingDog) expanded to 50.3 and 52.3 respectively. The difficult situation in the real estate sector continues, with new home prices falling by 0.4% month-on-month. Growth in retail sales and investment in capital goods slowed more than expected to 0.9% year-on-year and -3.8% for the year, respectively.

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30/09/2024
25th anniversary SICAV

Presentation of Roberto Mastromarchi, board member Popso (Suisse) Investment Fund SICAV

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